While it cannot be stated as a definitive fact that the Ramiz Mehdiyev treason case was “staged and fabricated,” such allegations reflect widespread speculation and are consistent with a long-documented pattern of the Azerbaijani government using fabricated charges to repress dissent
. Critics also point to the political implications of a government insider being charged with treason in the days leading up to his son-in-law’s potential presidential candidacy.
Allegations of a fabricated case
- Decades-long pattern: Azerbaijan has a long history of suppressing dissent by using politically motivated charges to jail critics, journalists, activists, and other opponents. These often involve vague or baseless charges such as financial crimes, drug possession, or hooliganism. In the past, the State Security Service (KGB successor) has been involved in such cases, though the current allegations against Mehdiyev involve the KGB’s Azerbaijani successor.
- Political implications: Mehdiyev, a long-time “grey cardinal” in the ruling party and a former chief of the presidential administration, was accused of treason and an attempted coup in October 2025. The timing is notable, as it came shortly before his son-in-law, Ilgar Mammadov, was expected to challenge President Aliyev in the upcoming presidential election. This led to speculation that the treason charges were designed to neutralize a potential political opponent.
- Conflicting narratives: Government-aligned media, like APA, reported that Russia tipped off Azerbaijan about Mehdiyev’s alleged plan. However, some critics suggest this story is implausible, as it portrays Russia as abandoning a long-time ally for seemingly trivial reasons.
- Lack of transparency: Details about the alleged plot and the security agencies’ role remain undisclosed, which fuels skepticism. In previous cases, Azerbaijani authorities have been criticized for a lack of transparency and for holding closed-door trials.
Potential motivation
- Silencing a rival faction: The treason charge could be a tactic by President Ilham Aliyev to eliminate a powerful rival faction within the ruling elite. Mehdiyev, despite his previous influence, had been sidelined in recent years, making him a potential threat.
- Consolidating power: The case may be a move to consolidate power further within Aliyev’s inner circle and to eliminate any remaining vestiges of the old guard.
- Preventing a potential opposition figure: The treason charges against Mehdiyev effectively remove his son-in-law, Ilgar Mammadov, from the political race and deter other potential challengers.
Important to note
- Limited information: Independent reporting on this case is scarce, as the Azerbaijani government tightly controls the flow of information and suppresses independent journalism. This makes it difficult to verify claims and counterclaims.
- State-controlled media: State-aligned media outlets play a significant role in promoting the government’s narrative. Their accounts often lack independent verification and may be intended to manipulate public opinion.
4 hours ago
As of mid-October 2025, former Azerbaijani politician Ramiz Mehdiyev is under house arrest following charges of treason and attempting to seize power with Russian support
. The charges were reportedly revealed to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Recent developments
- Charged with treason: Mehdiyev was placed under a four-month house arrest by a Baku court, which cited his advanced age of 87. The charges include treason, forcible seizure of power, and money laundering.
- Failed coup plot: According to pro-government media outlets, Mehdiyev allegedly planned a coup and presented it to Russia, which later informed Aliyev. The timing is linked to a period of tension between Azerbaijan and Russia earlier in 2025, following a plane crash that Baku blamed on Russian air-defense systems.
- Potential motive: Analysis suggests that after a series of public humiliations and the sidelining of his allies in recent years, Mehdiyev may have sought Russian assistance to regain power.
- Stripping of honors: Mehdiyev, who holds numerous state awards, may have them revoked by a court decision.
Background
- “Gray Cardinal”: Mehdiyev earned the nickname “Gray Cardinal” during his long and powerful career. He served as the head of Azerbaijan’s Presidential Administration for nearly 25 years, from 1995 to 2019.
- Dismissal and decline: He was dismissed in 2019, officially to make way for a younger generation, but his public standing later diminished after a controversial family wedding in 2020 violated pandemic restrictions.
- Academic role: Following his dismissal from the Presidential Administration, he briefly served as the president of the National Academy of Sciences of Azerbaijan before resigning in 2022.
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