Wagner/GRU Role in October 7th? – Post Link
7 min ago
The hypothesis that the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, and the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence agency, were involved in the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel
Search inside imageCountries worldwide commemorate anniversary of Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel | PBS NewsVisitGet this image on: pictures.reuters.com | License detailsCreator: Ami…
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Wagner Group Training Hamas:
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The National Resistance Center of Ukraine, citing Belarusian partisans, alleged that Wagner Group mercenaries trained Hamas militants in assault tactics and drone operations, specifically in Africa. These claims suggest Wagner shared expertise in using drones to drop explosives, a tactic seen in the October 7 attack.
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The Ukrainian Center for National Resistance claimed Wagner fighters, who had moved from Belarus to African countries, provided combat experience to Hamas, enhancing their capabilities for the attack.
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No non-Ukrainian sources have independently verified these allegations. Other Russian private military companies, such as Vegacy Strategic Services or PMC Redut, have also been mentioned as possible trainers in Syria, but evidence is lacking.
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GRU Involvement:
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The hypothesis of GRU involvement is largely speculative, based on the sophistication of the attack, which some argue exceeded Hamas’s known capabilities. Blogger Michael Novakhov, for instance, posited that the meticulous planning, technical expertise in electronic warfare, and operational complexity point to a professional intelligence agency like the GRU.
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Novakhov argues that the GRU’s operational secrecy means evidence is unlikely to surface, but the attack’s scale suggests external support beyond Hamas’s capacity.
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No concrete evidence links the GRU directly to the attack, and these claims rely on assumptions about Russia’s strategic interests rather than documented proof.
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Russian Strategic Interests:
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Some analyses suggest Russia could benefit from the attack by diverting Western attention from its war in Ukraine and destabilizing the Middle East to weaken U.S. influence.
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Russia has maintained ties with Hamas since 2006, hosting its leaders in Moscow and avoiding labeling Hamas as a terrorist organization. This relationship, combined with alleged use of Russian cryptocurrency exchanges like Garantex to fund Hamas, fuels speculation of indirect support.
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However, Russia’s Foreign Ministry and the Kremlin have denied involvement, and no evidence confirms Moscow’s prior knowledge of the attack.
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Israeli Investigations:
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Israeli intelligence failures are well-documented, with the Shin Bet and IDF admitting they underestimated Hamas’s capabilities and ignored warnings of the attack. A 40-page Hamas battle plan, codenamed “Jericho Wall,” was obtained by Israel over a year prior but dismissed as aspirational.
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Investigations by Shin Bet and the IDF focus on internal failures, such as misjudgments about Hamas’s intentions, overreliance on technology, and poor human intelligence in Gaza. No Israeli reports mention Wagner or GRU involvement.
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The IDF’s probe into specific incidents, like the Zikim Beach massacre, highlights operational chaos and friendly fire but does not point to foreign actors like Wagner or the GRU.
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International Investigations:
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The U.S. Justice Department announced a task force (JTF 10-7) to investigate Hamas’s October 7 attack, focusing on the group’s actions and potential support networks. While it examines financing and material support, no public findings have implicated Wagner or the GRU.
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The International Criminal Court (ICC) is investigating war crimes by Hamas and Israel, but its scope is limited to actions since 2014 and does not specifically address foreign involvement like Wagner or GRU.
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Lack of Conclusive Evidence:
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Western intelligence, including U.S. officials, has not corroborated claims of Wagner or GRU involvement. A Newsweek report explicitly states there is no evidence of direct Russian involvement, noting Hamas’s long history of operations and Iranian support.
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Allegations of Wagner’s role are primarily sourced from Ukrainian outlets, which may have a bias to implicate Russia given the ongoing war in Ukraine.
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The sophistication of the attack, including the use of drones, paragliders, and electronic warfare, is often cited as evidence of external training, but Hamas has developed drone capabilities independently and received support from Iran, a more established ally.
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Hamas’s Capabilities:
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Hamas has a history of conducting complex operations, with support from Iran and access to indigenous and Iranian weapons. The group’s “Nukhba forces” and years of planning could account for the attack’s scale without requiring Wagner or GRU involvement.
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Israeli intelligence failures, including dismissing Hamas’s plans and underfunding Gaza surveillance, allowed the group to execute the attack with surprise, amplifying its impact.
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Iran’s Role:
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Iran is a more likely external backer, given its long-standing support for Hamas, including funding, weapons, and training. Initial reports and Hamas statements suggest Iranian involvement, though Tehran has denied directing the attack.
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Russian Denials:
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Russia’s Foreign Ministry and Kremlin have dismissed claims of involvement, and Wagner’s dissolution under Kremlin control reduces the likelihood of independent actions by the group.
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Posts on X, particularly by user@mikenov
, reflect ongoing speculation about Wagner and GRU involvement, emphasizing the attack’s sophistication as evidence of external support. These posts, however, are opinion-driven and lack primary evidence.
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The hypothesis gains traction in pro-Ukrainian circles and among those critical of Russia, but it remains unverified by mainstream investigations.
Allegations of Wagner and GRU Involvement in October 7th Attack Emerge, Investigations Ongoing
Allegations primarily from Ukrainian sources suggest Russian private military company Wagner Group and Russia’s military intelligence agency GRU may have been involved in training or supporting Hamas ahead of the October 7th attack on Israel.
The hypothesis of Wagner Group and GRU involvement gained traction following claims by Ukrainian intelligence and military officials. These sources, including the National Resistance Center of Ukraine, alleged that Wagner mercenaries provided training to Hamas militants, particularly in assault tactics and the use of small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to drop explosives.
Official investigations into the multifaceted failures leading to the October 7th attack are being conducted by multiple entities:
- Israel: The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and Israeli intelligence agencies are conducting extensive inquiries into the intelligence and operational shortcomings that allowed the attack to occur. Publicly released information from these probes has so far focused on internal miscalculations regarding Hamas’s intentions and capabilities, and the military’s preparedness and response. There has been no official confirmation from the Israeli government or military specifically implicating Wagner or GRU operatives in the direct execution of the attack.
- United States: The U.S. Department of Justice has launched “Joint Task Force October 7” (JTF 10-7) to investigate and prosecute individuals involved in the attacks who committed crimes against Americans, as well as those providing material support to Hamas and its affiliates, including Iranian proxies.
3 While the scope is broad, public announcements have not specifically named Wagner or GRU as direct targets of this investigation in relation to the October 7th attack. U.S. intelligence assessments regarding the attack have largely focused on the failure to anticipate Hamas’s actions. - International Bodies: Human Rights Watch has conducted detailed investigations focusing on war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by Hamas-led groups during the assault.
4 The United Nations Independent International Commission of Inquiry is also examining the attacks, though its initial findings have focused on the actions of all parties and have not highlighted Wagner/GRU involvement.
While direct, independently verified evidence or official pronouncements from major Western or Israeli intelligence agencies publicly corroborating a command-and-control or operational role for Wagner or GRU in the October 7th attack remain limited, the broader context includes:
- Russia-Hamas Relations: Russia has maintained relations with Hamas, hosting its delegations in Moscow and not designating it as a terrorist organization, unlike many Western countries.
5 - Wagner and GRU Global Activities: Both the Wagner Group (whose leadership was significantly disrupted by the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin in August 2023 but whose elements reportedly continue to operate under new structures) and the GRU have a documented history of operating in various global hotspots, including the Middle East and Africa, often as instruments of Russian foreign policy and in cooperation with groups aligned with Russian interests. Reports have indicated GRU advisory roles with Houthi rebels in Yemen and Wagner’s alleged supply of an air defense system to Hezbollah.
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Analysts and commentators continue to scrutinize any potential Russian links to the October 7th attack, but a definitive conclusion on direct Wagner/GRU involvement in its planning and execution remains elusive based on currently available public information from official investigations. The allegations persist, primarily driven by Ukrainian sources and geopolitical analysis, while official inquiries by Israel and its allies have yet to publicly validate this specific hypothesis.
The attack itself was a highly coordinated operation by Hamas and other Palestinian militant factions, involving **rocket barrages, incursions, and massacres in Israeli communities**. Some analysts have pointed to Hamas’s evolving military capabilities and intelligence failures on Israel’s side as key factors in the success of the operation.
While Wagner Group has been active in various conflicts, particularly in Africa and Ukraine, there is no verified intelligence confirming its direct role in Hamas’s actions. Similarly, while Russia’s GRU has historically engaged in covert operations, its involvement in this specific attack remains speculative.
Would you like to explore how intelligence agencies assess such hypotheses or how Hamas’s military strategy has evolved over time?
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- Some reports suggest that Wagner mercenaries may have trained Hamas militants prior to the October 7th attack, focusing on assault tactics, the use of drones for dropping explosives, and experience in using drones against enemy equipment.
- The hypothesis posits that this training, potentially facilitated by or coordinated with Russia’s GRU (military intelligence), could have contributed to the planning and execution of the attack.
- It’s important to note that Russia has not condemned the Hamas attack.
- The National Resistance Center of Ukraine alleged that Wagner Group trained Hamas fighters.
- They claim this training involved assault exercises, using drones to drop explosives, and sharing experience using drones against enemy equipment.
- The National Resistance Center cited intelligence from Belarusian partisans, stating that Wagner mercenaries provided Hamas with drones during exercises in Africa.
- Hamas itself has taken full responsibility for the attack.
- Reports from Israeli military investigations focus on intelligence failures and misjudgments of Hamas’ capabilities, rather than on external support for the attack.
- Investigations are still ongoing, and no conclusive evidence has emerged publicly to definitively confirm the Wagner/GRU involvement hypothesis.
- Intelligence claims and verification: The sources of information regarding Wagner’s alleged involvement, particularly from Ukrainian sources, should be considered carefully, as they may have their own political agendas.
- Russian interests: While Russia has not condemned the Hamas attack, it is also important to note that they have not officially confirmed or denied any role in it.
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